Dr Ullrika Sahlin

IAS Fellow at South College, January – March 2025


Contact Details

  • Home Institution email: ullrika.sahlin@cec.lu.se
  • Durham email:
  • Durham Tel:

Dr Ullrika Sahlin is Associate Professor in Scientific Assessment and Environmental Science at Lund University, Sweden. Her research is interdisciplinary with focus on quantification and communication of uncertainty in scientific assessments for government and industry in the context of human and animal health. She has completed two master’s degrees: one in Mathematical Statistics at Lund University, and one in Forestry at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, as well as a PhD in Ecology on risk assessment of invasive species. During her PhD, she visited Keith Hayes, CSIRO Hobart, Tasmania and Professor Mark Burgman, Department of Botany, University of Melbourne and Director for the Australian Centre for Excellence in Risk Analysis to learn more about scientific methods to make conclusions under limited knowledge with applications on risk assessment of invasive species. She continued with a postdoctoral position at Linneaus University, Sweden, on charactering uncertainty in in silico predictions for chemical safety assessment. Her thinking on Bayesian, subjective, and imprecise probability has been shaped by collaborations with Professor Nils-Eric Sahlin, Medical Ethics, Lund University, and Professor Matthias Troffaes, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University. A postdoctoral visit to Professor Hugh Possingham, University of Queensland, Brisbane, enabled her to work with quantitative methods for assessment, evidence synthesis and decision making under uncertainty. She became a member of the cross-cutting working group on uncertainty at the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) with the task to support them in implementing their guidance on uncertainty analysis in scientific assessments. A lot of this work was done in collaboration with Andy Hart, UK, and Professor Peter Craig, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University. She has coordinated a tender for developing and delivering online courses in Expert Knowledge Elicitation for EFSA, and she is currently coordinating a tender to provide general support for Expert Knowledge Elicitations at EFSA.

Since 2017, Dr Sahlin is a Reader in Environmental Science at Lund University. She has supervised three PhD students to completion and is currently supervising two PhD students on methodological developments in scientific assessment, as well as postdoctoral fellows. Her current research includes robust Bayesian analysis for evidence synthesis, methodologies to characterise uncertainty in new approach methods for human risk assessment, impact assessment land-use decisions on biodiversity, and novel methods for expert knowledge elicitation. Dr Sahlin has been the president for the Nordic Chapter of Society for Risk Analysis Europe and the Swedish Society for Risk Science (Riskkollegiet) and a board member of the Society for Imprecise Probability. Together with Professor Ragnar Löfstedt, Kings College, London, she is giving an interdisciplinary PhD course in risk, uncertainty and decision making. In 2016, Dr Sahlin was awarded the Richard J. Burk Outstanding Service Award from the Society for Risk Analysis. She hosted the Annual Meeting for the Society for Risk Analysis Europe in Lund 2023. She led a Climate KIC project on creating games for expressing judgements with uncertainty and has developed the Uncertainty Show (in Swedish) for a recurring outreach activity.

For her IAS Fellowship, Dr Sahlin will collaborate with Professor John-Paul Gosling, Durham’s department of Mathematical Sciences and Dr David Chivers, Durham’s department of Marketing and Management, on the major project “Human and Numbers”.